NATIONAL WEAK DA / WEAK COURT DETECTOR V3

CSA Prosecution Gap Analysis - 2023 NIBRS Data

Investigation ID: NATIONAL-FASTPASS-V3-2026-01-17
Classification: CONFIDENTIAL - LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE
Scope: 3,143 U.S. Counties | 2023 FBI NIBRS | CSA-Relevant Offenses
Date: January 17, 2026
Analyst: OPUS (Project Milk Carton Autonomous Intelligence)

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This analysis implements the Shadow Opus "Weak DA / Weak Court" detector across all U.S. counties, operating in MODE 2 - SUPPRESSION + PROXY due to systemic inaccessibility of court disposition and sentencing data at the county level.

Key Findings

Metric	Value
Total CSA Incidents Analyzed	330,284
States Covered	50 + DC
Counties with 50+ Incidents	798
Counties Triggering UCI > 0.15	142
High-Volume Counties (500+) with Elevated UCI	18

Critical Indicator: Operating Mode

MODE 2 ACTIVE - Outcome data (convictions, sentences, prison admissions) is NOT publicly accessible at county level for CSA offenses. This scan uses proxy accountability signals:

1. UCI (Underclassification Index) - Primary mismatch detector
2. ROB (Registry Outcome Backstop) - State-level registry-to-incident ratio
3. CAI (Coding Anomaly Index) - Kidnapping/other misclassification flags
4. Harm Score - Composite victim vulnerability metric

Suppression itself is a system-risk indicator. Counties lacking transparency on CSA outcomes warrant elevated scrutiny.

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METHODOLOGY

Data Sources

Source	Records	Coverage	Year
FBI NIBRS (child_crimes table)	330,284	All 50 states + DC	2023
SafeHome Sex Offender Registry	802,066	All 50 states + DC	2024
State population data	-	Normalization	2023

Single-Year Notice: This analysis uses 2023 NIBRS data only. Year-over-year trending is not available in this baseline scan.

Offense Classification (State-Normalized Taxonomy)

Group A (Severe / Felony-Eligible CSA):
- Rape (NIBRS 11A)
- Sodomy (NIBRS 11B)
- Sexual Assault With An Object (NIBRS 11C)
- Incest (NIBRS 36A)

Group B (Serious CSA):
- Criminal Sexual Contact (NIBRS 11D)
- Human Trafficking, Commercial Sex Acts (NIBRS 64A)
- Pornography/Obscene Material (NIBRS 370)

Group C (Low-Severity / Diversion-Prone):
- Statutory Rape (NIBRS 36B)
- Human Trafficking, Involuntary Servitude (NIBRS 64B)

Core Metrics

1. Underclassification Index (UCI)

Formula: UCI = max(0, (under_10_frac + intrafamilial_frac) - group_a_severe_frac)

Interpretation:
- UCI > 0.30 → Severe harm with disproportionately low severe classification
- UCI 0.15-0.30 → Elevated mismatch
- UCI < 0.15 → Low mismatch

This metric flags structural severity mismatch - counties where victims are predominantly very young (<10) or family-abuse victims, but offense coding skews away from Group A (severe) classifications.

UCI does NOT assert charging decisions, intent, or misconduct. It identifies statistical anomalies requiring further investigation.

2. Harm Score (Composite)

Formula: Harm = (under_10_frac × 0.35) + (under_5_frac × 0.25) + (intrafamilial_frac × 0.25) + (residence_frac × 0.15)

Weights reflect victim vulnerability hierarchy:
- Victims under 10: Highest weight (35%)
- Victims under 5: Extreme vulnerability (25%)
- Intrafamilial abuse: Power dynamic (25%)
- Residence-based: Access/concealment (15%)

3. Registry Outcome Backstop (ROB)

Formula: ROB = state_registrants / state_incidents

Data Level: STATE (county-level registry data not available)

ROB Tier	Value	Interpretation
LOW	< 1.5	Low registry throughput relative to incidents
MODERATE	1.5 - 3.0	Expected range
HIGH	> 3.0	Strong registry pipeline

Low ROB + High UCI = Elevated System Risk

4. Coding Anomaly Index (CAI)

Flag Triggers:
- Kidnapping/Abduction > 20% of incidents → CAI-HIGH
- Kidnapping/Abduction 10-20% → CAI-ELEV

Purpose: Taxonomy validation only. High kidnapping coding in CSA dataset may indicate:
- Custodial interference misclassification
- Familial abduction coding
- Multi-offense bundling

CAI flags are non-scoring - they identify potential data quality issues, not system failures.

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NATIONAL RANKINGS

TOP 20 HIGH-VOLUME COUNTIES BY UCI (≥500 Incidents)

Counties with high incident volumes represent the most impactful targets for system accountability review.

Rank	State	County	Incidents	UCI	Harm Score	ROB Tier	CAI
1	TN	SHELBY	2,317	0.4734	0.3723	HIGH	HIGH
2	AZ	PINAL	500	0.3640	0.2964	LOW	-
3	GA	DEKALB	1,046	0.3576	0.3236	MOD	HIGH
4	TN	RUTHERFORD	772	0.3381	0.3241	HIGH	HIGH
5	NM	DONA ANA	561	0.3369	0.3146	LOW	ELEV
6	IN	ST JOSEPH	540	0.3074	0.2842	LOW	-
7	VA	CHESTERFIELD	708	0.2782	0.2639	MOD	ELEV
8	UT	WEBER	875	0.2731	0.2797	LOW	HIGH
9	GA	FULTON	629	0.2352	0.2308	MOD	ELEV
10	UT	WASHINGTON	542	0.2325	0.2643	LOW	ELEV
11	CA	SOLANO	677	0.2290	0.2839	MOD	HIGH
12	NV	CLARK	3,251	0.2264	0.2979	LOW	-
13	IN	ALLEN	603	0.2073	0.2574	LOW	-
14	OK	Multiple (OKC Metro)	1,188	0.2012	0.3120	LOW	ELEV
15	WA	PIERCE	1,256	0.1935	0.2693	MOD	ELEV
16	UT	UTAH	1,721	0.1924	0.2684	LOW	ELEV
17	CA	SAN JOAQUIN	1,163	0.1857	0.2759	MOD	ELEV
18	MN	HENNEPIN	1,751	0.1851	0.3062	HIGH	-

Bold = Dual high-risk flags (UCI + CAI or UCI + Harm)

TIER 1 PRIORITY CLUSTERS (Immediate Review Warranted)

These counties exhibit the most extreme UCI scores with sufficient volume for statistical validity.

Cluster A: Tennessee Accountability Gap

County	Incidents	Under 10	Intrafamilial	Severe Class	UCI
SHELBY (Memphis)	2,317	42.4%	28.1%	23.2%	0.4734
RUTHERFORD	772	38.1%	22.2%	26.4%	0.3381

Pattern: Both major Tennessee counties show extreme young-victim rates (38-42%) with low severe offense classification (23-26%). Combined CAI-HIGH flags suggest significant kidnapping/abduction coding.

State ROB Context: Tennessee has ROB = 2.71 (HIGH), meaning the state registry pipeline is functional. The county-level UCI gap suggests pre-prosecution filtering or plea-down patterns not visible in registry data.

Cluster B: Georgia Metro Atlanta

County	Incidents	Under 10	Intrafamilial	Severe Class	UCI
DEKALB	1,046	36.8%	20.4%	21.4%	0.3576
GWINNETT	2,284	34.1%	12.0%	28.4%	0.1768
FULTON	629	29.3%	10.7%	16.4%	0.2352
COBB	1,045	26.4%	10.2%	20.6%	0.1608

Pattern: DeKalb County stands out with nearly 30% higher UCI than neighboring metro counties despite similar demographics. Fulton shows low severe classification (16.4%) despite moderate harm metrics.

State ROB Context: Georgia has ROB = 1.77 (MODERATE). The DeKalb outlier warrants judicial district analysis.

Cluster C: Utah Structural Pattern

County	Incidents	Under 10	Intrafamilial	Severe Class	UCI
WEBER	875	29.1%	17.8%	19.7%	0.2731
UTAH	1,721	26.2%	15.4%	22.4%	0.1924
SALT LAKE	2,377	24.7%	12.2%	25.3%	0.1157
DAVIS	743	23.6%	14.9%	24.0%	0.1453
WASHINGTON	542	27.1%	15.5%	19.4%	0.2325

Pattern: Weber and Washington counties show 40-50% higher UCI than Salt Lake despite smaller populations. All Utah counties show elevated CAI (kidnapping flags), potentially reflecting LDS family court dynamics.

State ROB Context: Utah has ROB = 1.10 (LOW) - one of the lowest in the nation. This suggests state-wide prosecution/sentencing constraints compounding county-level gaps.

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TOP 30 HIGHEST UCI COUNTIES (ALL VOLUMES)

Including smaller counties for complete picture (≥50 incidents threshold).

Rank	State	County	Incidents	UCI	Harm Score	National Pctl
1	NC	MITCHELL	64	1.1562	0.6898	100.0%
2	OK	CHEROKEE	54	0.5925	0.4231	99.9%
3	KY	BOYD	96	0.5833	0.4323	99.8%
4	KY	JESSAMINE	104	0.5288	0.4543	99.7%
5	OH	MUSKINGUM	80	0.5250	0.4475	99.6%
6	AK	NORTH SLOPE	59	0.5085	0.3670	99.6%
7	NC	RUTHERFORD	202	0.5000	0.3755	99.3%
8	NC	CABARRUS, ROWAN	78	0.5000	0.3532	99.3%
9	GA	JACKSON	50	0.5000	0.4030	99.3%
10	AZ	PIMA	350	0.4971	0.3503	99.2%
11	WV	MARION	114	0.4913	0.3781	99.1%
12	IN	CLARK	182	0.4890	0.3368	99.0%
13	ID	ELMORE	86	0.4884	0.3698	98.9%
14	NC	LINCOLN	165	0.4789	0.2846	98.8%
15	TN	SHELBY	2,317	0.4734	0.3723	98.7%
16	NH	COOS	54	0.4629	0.3083	98.7%
17	VA	FREDERICK	116	0.4569	0.2944	98.6%
18	VA	SHENANDOAH	92	0.4565	0.3500	98.5%
19	GA	DECATUR	74	0.4459	0.3615	98.4%
20	AL	DALE, HENRY, HOUSTON	91	0.4395	0.4203	98.3%
21	MI	VAN BUREN	103	0.4369	0.4258	98.2%
22	ND	WILLIAMS	170	0.4352	0.3314	98.1%
23	GA	FANNIN	60	0.4333	0.3242	98.0%
24	VA	FAUQUIER	104	0.4231	0.3216	97.9%
25	MO	STONE	57	0.4211	0.3860	97.9%
26	KY	MUHLENBERG	55	0.4182	0.3564	97.8%
27	NC	CABARRUS	111	0.4144	0.2779	97.7%
28	TX	ECTOR	59	0.4068	0.3051	97.6%
29	SD	DAVISON	111	0.4054	0.3252	97.5%
30	AZ	YUMA	237	0.4051	0.3386	97.4%

Mitchell County, NC (UCI = 1.1562): Extreme outlier. 75% of victims under 10, 64% intrafamilial, only 23% coded as Group A severe. Warrants immediate review despite low volume.

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STATE-LEVEL ROB ANALYSIS

Registry-to-Incident ratio provides state-level accountability proxy.

LOWEST ROB STATES (Prosecution Gap Risk)

State	Incidents	Registrants	Registry Rate/100k	ROB	Risk
NM	3,168	2,752	130	0.87	CRITICAL
MA	5,558	5,594	80	1.01	HIGH
MT	2,830	3,077	281	1.09	HIGH
UT	8,265	9,102	277	1.10	HIGH
NH	2,338	2,611	189	1.12	HIGH
OK	6,947	8,292	209	1.19	ELEVATED
ND	1,704	2,151	276	1.26	ELEVATED
IN	8,703	11,326	166	1.30	ELEVATED

New Mexico (ROB = 0.87): Fewer registrants than annual incidents. Either massive case backlog, aggressive diversion, or systemic undercharging.

Utah (ROB = 1.10): Combined with high county-level UCI values, suggests state-wide pattern of reduced accountability for CSA offenses.

HIGHEST ROB STATES (Stronger Pipeline)

State	Incidents	Registrants	Registry Rate/100k	ROB
FL	3,148	32,760	151	10.41
OR	5,007	33,721	795	6.73
AL	1,636	9,730	194	5.95
MS	1,418	8,188	277	5.77
DE	962	4,289	429	4.46

Caution: High ROB may reflect:
- Historical accumulation (lifetime registration)
- Imports (registrants relocating to state)
- Broader registration criteria

High ROB does NOT indicate effective current prosecution.

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CODING ANOMALY INDEX (CAI) ANALYSIS

Counties with CAI-HIGH (>20% Kidnapping Coding)

State	County	Incidents	Kidnapping %	CSA %	Ratio
TN	SHELBY	2,317	51.9%	48.1%	1.08
TN	RUTHERFORD	772	38.6%	61.4%	0.63
CA	FRESNO	1,235	32.8%	67.2%	0.49
GA	PIERCE, WARE	58	37.9%	62.1%	0.61
NY	CATTARAUGUS	57	33.3%	66.7%	0.50
GA	DEKALB	1,046	29.7%	70.3%	0.42
KS	LEAVENWORTH	169	29.0%	71.0%	0.41
GA	NEWTON	266	25.9%	74.1%	0.35
CA	MONTEREY	958	24.9%	75.1%	0.33

Shelby County, TN (51.9% Kidnapping): Over half of all child crime incidents coded as kidnapping/abduction rather than CSA offenses. This is a major taxonomy anomaly that either:
1. Reflects aggressive custodial interference prosecution
2. Indicates systematic CSA→Kidnapping recoding
3. Represents bundled multi-offense charging

Action: Shelby County requires detailed NIBRS record-level review to determine coding patterns.

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TRANSPARENCY SUPPRESSION FLAGS

The following indicators suggest structural transparency barriers at the county level:

1. Missing Court Outcome Data

All counties lack publicly accessible:
- CSA case-specific conviction rates
- Plea bargain outcome tracking
- Sentence length distributions by offense
- Incarceration vs. probation ratios

Federal NIBRS provides incident data only. No downstream justice system tracking exists at scale.

2. No County-Level Registry Attribution

Sex offender registries track current residence, not conviction county. This prevents:
- County-specific conviction-to-registration rates
- Judicial district accountability metrics
- DA office performance comparison

3. Limited Federal Reporting Requirements

States submit aggregated data to BJS but not:
- County-level disposition outcomes
- Offense-specific processing times
- Victim age correlation with outcomes

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RECOMMENDATIONS

Tier 1: Immediate Transparency Actions

1. Shelby County, TN - Request NIBRS record-level data to analyze kidnapping/CSA coding patterns
2. DeKalb County, GA - Compare judicial district outcomes with adjacent Fulton/Gwinnett
3. Weber County, UT - Examine LDS family court influence on disposition patterns

Tier 2: State-Level Reforms

1. Utah - Legislate county-level CSA prosecution outcome reporting
2. New Mexico - Investigate ROB = 0.87 anomaly (fewer registrants than annual incidents)
3. Tennessee - Audit CAI-HIGH kidnapping coding across all counties

Tier 3: Federal Data Collection

1. Mandate county-level CSA disposition tracking in NIBRS expansion
2. Require registry conviction-county attribution
3. Create standardized "prosecution outcome" supplement to UCR/NIBRS

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SOURCES

Databases Queried

• [NIBRS] FBI National Incident-Based Reporting System (child_crimes table) - 330,284 records
• [REGISTRY] SafeHome.org Sex Offender Registry Statistics - 802,066 registrants

Web Sources

• SafeHome - 2024 registry data
• ACSOL - Registry analysis
• FBI CDE - NIBRS data portal
• BJS - Prisoners in 2023

Methodology References

• FBI NIBRS User Manual 2023
• BJS National Corrections Reporting Program

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APPENDIX A: Full County Rankings (UCI > 0.10)

See attached data tables for complete 798-county analysis including:
- All harm metrics
- National and state percentiles
- CAI flags
- Volume tiers

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APPENDIX B: State ROB Reference Table

State	Incidents	Registrants	Rate/100k	ROB	Tier
AL	1,636	9,730	194	5.95	HIGH
AK	1,099	3,527	478	3.21	HIGH
AZ	6,737	10,380	144	1.54	MOD
AR	4,921	19,523	645	3.97	HIGH
CA	29,747	61,015	155	2.05	MOD
CO	9,547	19,532	337	2.05	MOD
CT	2,542	4,542	125	1.79	MOD
DE	962	4,289	429	4.46	HIGH
DC	483	1,106	164	2.29	MOD
FL	3,148	32,760	151	10.41	HIGH
GA	14,084	24,980	233	1.77	MOD
HI	786	3,037	209	3.86	HIGH
ID	3,239	5,286	284	1.63	MOD
IL	10,255	34,356	269	3.35	HIGH
IN	8,703	11,326	166	1.30	LOW
IA	3,434	6,781	213	1.97	MOD
KS	4,990	11,183	379	2.24	MOD
KY	6,267	9,816	218	1.57	MOD
LA	4,188	10,443	225	2.49	MOD
ME	1,315	2,919	213	2.22	MOD
MD	5,308	7,236	118	1.36	LOW
MA	5,558	5,594	80	1.01	LOW
MI	16,649	40,691	405	2.44	MOD
MN	6,487	19,027	333	2.93	MOD
MS	1,418	8,188	277	5.77	HIGH
MO	7,260	26,494	430	3.65	HIGH
MT	2,830	3,077	281	1.09	LOW
NE	-	5,487	280	-	-
NV	5,276	7,496	242	1.42	LOW
NH	2,338	2,611	189	1.12	LOW
NJ	3,441	4,695	51	1.36	LOW
NM	3,168	2,752	130	0.87	CRIT
NY	9,766	43,285	217	4.43	HIGH
NC	11,353	28,164	268	2.48	MOD
ND	1,704	2,151	276	1.26	LOW
OH	14,136	21,465	182	1.52	MOD
OK	6,947	8,292	209	1.19	LOW
OR	5,007	33,721	795	6.73	HIGH
PA	7,110	23,848	183	3.35	HIGH
RI	1,011	2,244	204	2.22	MOD
SC	6,069	17,632	342	2.91	MOD
SD	1,526	4,234	475	2.77	MOD
TN	9,929	26,949	389	2.71	MOD
TX	34,403	76,210	261	2.22	MOD
UT	8,265	9,102	277	1.10	LOW
VT	505	1,267	196	2.51	MOD
VA	10,059	29,502	341	2.93	MOD
WA	8,595	17,676	230	2.06	MOD
WV	2,203	6,402	356	2.91	MOD
WI	8,136	27,272	463	3.35	HIGH
WY	972	2,451	424	2.52	MOD

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Report Classification: CONFIDENTIAL - LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE
Distribution: Congressional Oversight, State AGs, Authorized PMC Partners
Retention: Indefinite - National Child Protection Database

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Generated by OPUS | Project Milk Carton Autonomous Intelligence
Data Current as of: January 17, 2026