NATIONAL WEAK DA WEAK COURT SCAN CSA V3 2026-01-17
NATIONAL WEAK DA / WEAK COURT DETECTOR V3
CSA Prosecution Gap Analysis - 2023 NIBRS Data
Investigation ID: NATIONAL-FASTPASS-V3-2026-01-17
Classification: CONFIDENTIAL - LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE
Scope: 3,143 U.S. Counties | 2023 FBI NIBRS | CSA-Relevant Offenses
Date: January 17, 2026
Analyst: OPUS (Project Milk Carton Autonomous Intelligence)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This analysis implements the Shadow Opus "Weak DA / Weak Court" detector across all U.S. counties, operating in MODE 2 - SUPPRESSION + PROXY due to systemic inaccessibility of court disposition and sentencing data at the county level.
Key Findings
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total CSA Incidents Analyzed | 330,284 |
| States Covered | 50 + DC |
| Counties with 50+ Incidents | 798 |
| Counties Triggering UCI > 0.15 | 142 |
| High-Volume Counties (500+) with Elevated UCI | 18 |
Critical Indicator: Operating Mode
MODE 2 ACTIVE - Outcome data (convictions, sentences, prison admissions) is NOT publicly accessible at county level for CSA offenses. This scan uses proxy accountability signals:
- UCI (Underclassification Index) - Primary mismatch detector
- ROB (Registry Outcome Backstop) - State-level registry-to-incident ratio
- CAI (Coding Anomaly Index) - Kidnapping/other misclassification flags
- Harm Score - Composite victim vulnerability metric
Suppression itself is a system-risk indicator. Counties lacking transparency on CSA outcomes warrant elevated scrutiny.
METHODOLOGY
Data Sources
| Source | Records | Coverage | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| FBI NIBRS (child_crimes table) | 330,284 | All 50 states + DC | 2023 |
| SafeHome Sex Offender Registry | 802,066 | All 50 states + DC | 2024 |
| State population data | - | Normalization | 2023 |
Single-Year Notice: This analysis uses 2023 NIBRS data only. Year-over-year trending is not available in this baseline scan.
Offense Classification (State-Normalized Taxonomy)
Group A (Severe / Felony-Eligible CSA):
- Rape (NIBRS 11A)
- Sodomy (NIBRS 11B)
- Sexual Assault With An Object (NIBRS 11C)
- Incest (NIBRS 36A)
Group B (Serious CSA):
- Criminal Sexual Contact (NIBRS 11D)
- Human Trafficking, Commercial Sex Acts (NIBRS 64A)
- Pornography/Obscene Material (NIBRS 370)
Group C (Low-Severity / Diversion-Prone):
- Statutory Rape (NIBRS 36B)
- Human Trafficking, Involuntary Servitude (NIBRS 64B)
Core Metrics
1. Underclassification Index (UCI)
Formula: UCI = max(0, (under_10_frac + intrafamilial_frac) - group_a_severe_frac)
Interpretation:
- UCI > 0.30 → Severe harm with disproportionately low severe classification
- UCI 0.15-0.30 → Elevated mismatch
- UCI < 0.15 → Low mismatch
This metric flags structural severity mismatch - counties where victims are predominantly very young (<10) or family-abuse victims, but offense coding skews away from Group A (severe) classifications.
UCI does NOT assert charging decisions, intent, or misconduct. It identifies statistical anomalies requiring further investigation.
2. Harm Score (Composite)
Formula: Harm = (under_10_frac × 0.35) + (under_5_frac × 0.25) + (intrafamilial_frac × 0.25) + (residence_frac × 0.15)
Weights reflect victim vulnerability hierarchy:
- Victims under 10: Highest weight (35%)
- Victims under 5: Extreme vulnerability (25%)
- Intrafamilial abuse: Power dynamic (25%)
- Residence-based: Access/concealment (15%)
3. Registry Outcome Backstop (ROB)
Formula: ROB = state_registrants / state_incidents
Data Level: STATE (county-level registry data not available)
| ROB Tier | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| LOW | < 1.5 | Low registry throughput relative to incidents |
| MODERATE | 1.5 - 3.0 | Expected range |
| HIGH | > 3.0 | Strong registry pipeline |
Low ROB + High UCI = Elevated System Risk
4. Coding Anomaly Index (CAI)
Flag Triggers:
- Kidnapping/Abduction > 20% of incidents → CAI-HIGH
- Kidnapping/Abduction 10-20% → CAI-ELEV
Purpose: Taxonomy validation only. High kidnapping coding in CSA dataset may indicate:
- Custodial interference misclassification
- Familial abduction coding
- Multi-offense bundling
CAI flags are non-scoring - they identify potential data quality issues, not system failures.
NATIONAL RANKINGS
TOP 20 HIGH-VOLUME COUNTIES BY UCI (≥500 Incidents)
Counties with high incident volumes represent the most impactful targets for system accountability review.
| Rank | State | County | Incidents | UCI | Harm Score | ROB Tier | CAI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TN | SHELBY | 2,317 | 0.4734 | 0.3723 | HIGH | HIGH |
| 2 | AZ | PINAL | 500 | 0.3640 | 0.2964 | LOW | - |
| 3 | GA | DEKALB | 1,046 | 0.3576 | 0.3236 | MOD | HIGH |
| 4 | TN | RUTHERFORD | 772 | 0.3381 | 0.3241 | HIGH | HIGH |
| 5 | NM | DONA ANA | 561 | 0.3369 | 0.3146 | LOW | ELEV |
| 6 | IN | ST JOSEPH | 540 | 0.3074 | 0.2842 | LOW | - |
| 7 | VA | CHESTERFIELD | 708 | 0.2782 | 0.2639 | MOD | ELEV |
| 8 | UT | WEBER | 875 | 0.2731 | 0.2797 | LOW | HIGH |
| 9 | GA | FULTON | 629 | 0.2352 | 0.2308 | MOD | ELEV |
| 10 | UT | WASHINGTON | 542 | 0.2325 | 0.2643 | LOW | ELEV |
| 11 | CA | SOLANO | 677 | 0.2290 | 0.2839 | MOD | HIGH |
| 12 | NV | CLARK | 3,251 | 0.2264 | 0.2979 | LOW | - |
| 13 | IN | ALLEN | 603 | 0.2073 | 0.2574 | LOW | - |
| 14 | OK | Multiple (OKC Metro) | 1,188 | 0.2012 | 0.3120 | LOW | ELEV |
| 15 | WA | PIERCE | 1,256 | 0.1935 | 0.2693 | MOD | ELEV |
| 16 | UT | UTAH | 1,721 | 0.1924 | 0.2684 | LOW | ELEV |
| 17 | CA | SAN JOAQUIN | 1,163 | 0.1857 | 0.2759 | MOD | ELEV |
| 18 | MN | HENNEPIN | 1,751 | 0.1851 | 0.3062 | HIGH | - |
Bold = Dual high-risk flags (UCI + CAI or UCI + Harm)
TIER 1 PRIORITY CLUSTERS (Immediate Review Warranted)
These counties exhibit the most extreme UCI scores with sufficient volume for statistical validity.
Cluster A: Tennessee Accountability Gap
| County | Incidents | Under 10 | Intrafamilial | Severe Class | UCI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHELBY (Memphis) | 2,317 | 42.4% | 28.1% | 23.2% | 0.4734 |
| RUTHERFORD | 772 | 38.1% | 22.2% | 26.4% | 0.3381 |
Pattern: Both major Tennessee counties show extreme young-victim rates (38-42%) with low severe offense classification (23-26%). Combined CAI-HIGH flags suggest significant kidnapping/abduction coding.
State ROB Context: Tennessee has ROB = 2.71 (HIGH), meaning the state registry pipeline is functional. The county-level UCI gap suggests pre-prosecution filtering or plea-down patterns not visible in registry data.
Cluster B: Georgia Metro Atlanta
| County | Incidents | Under 10 | Intrafamilial | Severe Class | UCI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEKALB | 1,046 | 36.8% | 20.4% | 21.4% | 0.3576 |
| GWINNETT | 2,284 | 34.1% | 12.0% | 28.4% | 0.1768 |
| FULTON | 629 | 29.3% | 10.7% | 16.4% | 0.2352 |
| COBB | 1,045 | 26.4% | 10.2% | 20.6% | 0.1608 |
Pattern: DeKalb County stands out with nearly 30% higher UCI than neighboring metro counties despite similar demographics. Fulton shows low severe classification (16.4%) despite moderate harm metrics.
State ROB Context: Georgia has ROB = 1.77 (MODERATE). The DeKalb outlier warrants judicial district analysis.
Cluster C: Utah Structural Pattern
| County | Incidents | Under 10 | Intrafamilial | Severe Class | UCI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEBER | 875 | 29.1% | 17.8% | 19.7% | 0.2731 |
| UTAH | 1,721 | 26.2% | 15.4% | 22.4% | 0.1924 |
| SALT LAKE | 2,377 | 24.7% | 12.2% | 25.3% | 0.1157 |
| DAVIS | 743 | 23.6% | 14.9% | 24.0% | 0.1453 |
| WASHINGTON | 542 | 27.1% | 15.5% | 19.4% | 0.2325 |
Pattern: Weber and Washington counties show 40-50% higher UCI than Salt Lake despite smaller populations. All Utah counties show elevated CAI (kidnapping flags), potentially reflecting LDS family court dynamics.
State ROB Context: Utah has ROB = 1.10 (LOW) - one of the lowest in the nation. This suggests state-wide prosecution/sentencing constraints compounding county-level gaps.
TOP 30 HIGHEST UCI COUNTIES (ALL VOLUMES)
Including smaller counties for complete picture (≥50 incidents threshold).
| Rank | State | County | Incidents | UCI | Harm Score | National Pctl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NC | MITCHELL | 64 | 1.1562 | 0.6898 | 100.0% |
| 2 | OK | CHEROKEE | 54 | 0.5925 | 0.4231 | 99.9% |
| 3 | KY | BOYD | 96 | 0.5833 | 0.4323 | 99.8% |
| 4 | KY | JESSAMINE | 104 | 0.5288 | 0.4543 | 99.7% |
| 5 | OH | MUSKINGUM | 80 | 0.5250 | 0.4475 | 99.6% |
| 6 | AK | NORTH SLOPE | 59 | 0.5085 | 0.3670 | 99.6% |
| 7 | NC | RUTHERFORD | 202 | 0.5000 | 0.3755 | 99.3% |
| 8 | NC | CABARRUS, ROWAN | 78 | 0.5000 | 0.3532 | 99.3% |
| 9 | GA | JACKSON | 50 | 0.5000 | 0.4030 | 99.3% |
| 10 | AZ | PIMA | 350 | 0.4971 | 0.3503 | 99.2% |
| 11 | WV | MARION | 114 | 0.4913 | 0.3781 | 99.1% |
| 12 | IN | CLARK | 182 | 0.4890 | 0.3368 | 99.0% |
| 13 | ID | ELMORE | 86 | 0.4884 | 0.3698 | 98.9% |
| 14 | NC | LINCOLN | 165 | 0.4789 | 0.2846 | 98.8% |
| 15 | TN | SHELBY | 2,317 | 0.4734 | 0.3723 | 98.7% |
| 16 | NH | COOS | 54 | 0.4629 | 0.3083 | 98.7% |
| 17 | VA | FREDERICK | 116 | 0.4569 | 0.2944 | 98.6% |
| 18 | VA | SHENANDOAH | 92 | 0.4565 | 0.3500 | 98.5% |
| 19 | GA | DECATUR | 74 | 0.4459 | 0.3615 | 98.4% |
| 20 | AL | DALE, HENRY, HOUSTON | 91 | 0.4395 | 0.4203 | 98.3% |
| 21 | MI | VAN BUREN | 103 | 0.4369 | 0.4258 | 98.2% |
| 22 | ND | WILLIAMS | 170 | 0.4352 | 0.3314 | 98.1% |
| 23 | GA | FANNIN | 60 | 0.4333 | 0.3242 | 98.0% |
| 24 | VA | FAUQUIER | 104 | 0.4231 | 0.3216 | 97.9% |
| 25 | MO | STONE | 57 | 0.4211 | 0.3860 | 97.9% |
| 26 | KY | MUHLENBERG | 55 | 0.4182 | 0.3564 | 97.8% |
| 27 | NC | CABARRUS | 111 | 0.4144 | 0.2779 | 97.7% |
| 28 | TX | ECTOR | 59 | 0.4068 | 0.3051 | 97.6% |
| 29 | SD | DAVISON | 111 | 0.4054 | 0.3252 | 97.5% |
| 30 | AZ | YUMA | 237 | 0.4051 | 0.3386 | 97.4% |
Mitchell County, NC (UCI = 1.1562): Extreme outlier. 75% of victims under 10, 64% intrafamilial, only 23% coded as Group A severe. Warrants immediate review despite low volume.
STATE-LEVEL ROB ANALYSIS
Registry-to-Incident ratio provides state-level accountability proxy.
LOWEST ROB STATES (Prosecution Gap Risk)
| State | Incidents | Registrants | Registry Rate/100k | ROB | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 3,168 | 2,752 | 130 | 0.87 | CRITICAL |
| MA | 5,558 | 5,594 | 80 | 1.01 | HIGH |
| MT | 2,830 | 3,077 | 281 | 1.09 | HIGH |
| UT | 8,265 | 9,102 | 277 | 1.10 | HIGH |
| NH | 2,338 | 2,611 | 189 | 1.12 | HIGH |
| OK | 6,947 | 8,292 | 209 | 1.19 | ELEVATED |
| ND | 1,704 | 2,151 | 276 | 1.26 | ELEVATED |
| IN | 8,703 | 11,326 | 166 | 1.30 | ELEVATED |
New Mexico (ROB = 0.87): Fewer registrants than annual incidents. Either massive case backlog, aggressive diversion, or systemic undercharging.
Utah (ROB = 1.10): Combined with high county-level UCI values, suggests state-wide pattern of reduced accountability for CSA offenses.
HIGHEST ROB STATES (Stronger Pipeline)
| State | Incidents | Registrants | Registry Rate/100k | ROB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL | 3,148 | 32,760 | 151 | 10.41 |
| OR | 5,007 | 33,721 | 795 | 6.73 |
| AL | 1,636 | 9,730 | 194 | 5.95 |
| MS | 1,418 | 8,188 | 277 | 5.77 |
| DE | 962 | 4,289 | 429 | 4.46 |
Caution: High ROB may reflect:
- Historical accumulation (lifetime registration)
- Imports (registrants relocating to state)
- Broader registration criteria
High ROB does NOT indicate effective current prosecution.
CODING ANOMALY INDEX (CAI) ANALYSIS
Counties with CAI-HIGH (>20% Kidnapping Coding)
| State | County | Incidents | Kidnapping % | CSA % | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TN | SHELBY | 2,317 | 51.9% | 48.1% | 1.08 |
| TN | RUTHERFORD | 772 | 38.6% | 61.4% | 0.63 |
| CA | FRESNO | 1,235 | 32.8% | 67.2% | 0.49 |
| GA | PIERCE, WARE | 58 | 37.9% | 62.1% | 0.61 |
| NY | CATTARAUGUS | 57 | 33.3% | 66.7% | 0.50 |
| GA | DEKALB | 1,046 | 29.7% | 70.3% | 0.42 |
| KS | LEAVENWORTH | 169 | 29.0% | 71.0% | 0.41 |
| GA | NEWTON | 266 | 25.9% | 74.1% | 0.35 |
| CA | MONTEREY | 958 | 24.9% | 75.1% | 0.33 |
Shelby County, TN (51.9% Kidnapping): Over half of all child crime incidents coded as kidnapping/abduction rather than CSA offenses. This is a major taxonomy anomaly that either:
1. Reflects aggressive custodial interference prosecution
2. Indicates systematic CSA→Kidnapping recoding
3. Represents bundled multi-offense charging
Action: Shelby County requires detailed NIBRS record-level review to determine coding patterns.
TRANSPARENCY SUPPRESSION FLAGS
The following indicators suggest structural transparency barriers at the county level:
1. Missing Court Outcome Data
All counties lack publicly accessible:
- CSA case-specific conviction rates
- Plea bargain outcome tracking
- Sentence length distributions by offense
- Incarceration vs. probation ratios
Federal NIBRS provides incident data only. No downstream justice system tracking exists at scale.
2. No County-Level Registry Attribution
Sex offender registries track current residence, not conviction county. This prevents:
- County-specific conviction-to-registration rates
- Judicial district accountability metrics
- DA office performance comparison
3. Limited Federal Reporting Requirements
States submit aggregated data to BJS but not:
- County-level disposition outcomes
- Offense-specific processing times
- Victim age correlation with outcomes
RECOMMENDATIONS
Tier 1: Immediate Transparency Actions
- Shelby County, TN - Request NIBRS record-level data to analyze kidnapping/CSA coding patterns
- DeKalb County, GA - Compare judicial district outcomes with adjacent Fulton/Gwinnett
- Weber County, UT - Examine LDS family court influence on disposition patterns
Tier 2: State-Level Reforms
- Utah - Legislate county-level CSA prosecution outcome reporting
- New Mexico - Investigate ROB = 0.87 anomaly (fewer registrants than annual incidents)
- Tennessee - Audit CAI-HIGH kidnapping coding across all counties
Tier 3: Federal Data Collection
- Mandate county-level CSA disposition tracking in NIBRS expansion
- Require registry conviction-county attribution
- Create standardized "prosecution outcome" supplement to UCR/NIBRS
SOURCES
Databases Queried
- [NIBRS] FBI National Incident-Based Reporting System (child_crimes table) - 330,284 records
- [REGISTRY] SafeHome.org Sex Offender Registry Statistics - 802,066 registrants
Web Sources
- SafeHome - 2024 registry data
- ACSOL - Registry analysis
- FBI CDE - NIBRS data portal
- BJS - Prisoners in 2023
Methodology References
- FBI NIBRS User Manual 2023
- BJS National Corrections Reporting Program
APPENDIX A: Full County Rankings (UCI > 0.10)
See attached data tables for complete 798-county analysis including:
- All harm metrics
- National and state percentiles
- CAI flags
- Volume tiers
APPENDIX B: State ROB Reference Table
| State | Incidents | Registrants | Rate/100k | ROB | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1,636 | 9,730 | 194 | 5.95 | HIGH |
| AK | 1,099 | 3,527 | 478 | 3.21 | HIGH |
| AZ | 6,737 | 10,380 | 144 | 1.54 | MOD |
| AR | 4,921 | 19,523 | 645 | 3.97 | HIGH |
| CA | 29,747 | 61,015 | 155 | 2.05 | MOD |
| CO | 9,547 | 19,532 | 337 | 2.05 | MOD |
| CT | 2,542 | 4,542 | 125 | 1.79 | MOD |
| DE | 962 | 4,289 | 429 | 4.46 | HIGH |
| DC | 483 | 1,106 | 164 | 2.29 | MOD |
| FL | 3,148 | 32,760 | 151 | 10.41 | HIGH |
| GA | 14,084 | 24,980 | 233 | 1.77 | MOD |
| HI | 786 | 3,037 | 209 | 3.86 | HIGH |
| ID | 3,239 | 5,286 | 284 | 1.63 | MOD |
| IL | 10,255 | 34,356 | 269 | 3.35 | HIGH |
| IN | 8,703 | 11,326 | 166 | 1.30 | LOW |
| IA | 3,434 | 6,781 | 213 | 1.97 | MOD |
| KS | 4,990 | 11,183 | 379 | 2.24 | MOD |
| KY | 6,267 | 9,816 | 218 | 1.57 | MOD |
| LA | 4,188 | 10,443 | 225 | 2.49 | MOD |
| ME | 1,315 | 2,919 | 213 | 2.22 | MOD |
| MD | 5,308 | 7,236 | 118 | 1.36 | LOW |
| MA | 5,558 | 5,594 | 80 | 1.01 | LOW |
| MI | 16,649 | 40,691 | 405 | 2.44 | MOD |
| MN | 6,487 | 19,027 | 333 | 2.93 | MOD |
| MS | 1,418 | 8,188 | 277 | 5.77 | HIGH |
| MO | 7,260 | 26,494 | 430 | 3.65 | HIGH |
| MT | 2,830 | 3,077 | 281 | 1.09 | LOW |
| NE | - | 5,487 | 280 | - | - |
| NV | 5,276 | 7,496 | 242 | 1.42 | LOW |
| NH | 2,338 | 2,611 | 189 | 1.12 | LOW |
| NJ | 3,441 | 4,695 | 51 | 1.36 | LOW |
| NM | 3,168 | 2,752 | 130 | 0.87 | CRIT |
| NY | 9,766 | 43,285 | 217 | 4.43 | HIGH |
| NC | 11,353 | 28,164 | 268 | 2.48 | MOD |
| ND | 1,704 | 2,151 | 276 | 1.26 | LOW |
| OH | 14,136 | 21,465 | 182 | 1.52 | MOD |
| OK | 6,947 | 8,292 | 209 | 1.19 | LOW |
| OR | 5,007 | 33,721 | 795 | 6.73 | HIGH |
| PA | 7,110 | 23,848 | 183 | 3.35 | HIGH |
| RI | 1,011 | 2,244 | 204 | 2.22 | MOD |
| SC | 6,069 | 17,632 | 342 | 2.91 | MOD |
| SD | 1,526 | 4,234 | 475 | 2.77 | MOD |
| TN | 9,929 | 26,949 | 389 | 2.71 | MOD |
| TX | 34,403 | 76,210 | 261 | 2.22 | MOD |
| UT | 8,265 | 9,102 | 277 | 1.10 | LOW |
| VT | 505 | 1,267 | 196 | 2.51 | MOD |
| VA | 10,059 | 29,502 | 341 | 2.93 | MOD |
| WA | 8,595 | 17,676 | 230 | 2.06 | MOD |
| WV | 2,203 | 6,402 | 356 | 2.91 | MOD |
| WI | 8,136 | 27,272 | 463 | 3.35 | HIGH |
| WY | 972 | 2,451 | 424 | 2.52 | MOD |
Report Classification: CONFIDENTIAL - LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE
Distribution: Congressional Oversight, State AGs, Authorized PMC Partners
Retention: Indefinite - National Child Protection Database
Generated by OPUS | Project Milk Carton Autonomous Intelligence
Data Current as of: January 17, 2026